Job Creation, Job Destruction, and Their Impact on Union Formation and First Birth

Chen Luo , University of Warsaw

This study examines the union formation and fertility effects of individuals’ exposure to job creation and destruction in their early careers in Germany. It proposes new measures (i.e., job creation and job destruction) to address labor market changes in family demography. With skill-specific job creation and destruction, this study explores whether new entrants of different skill levels also demonstrate different patterns of union formation and first birth in the changing labor market. Besides, it examines the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions of individuals on not only the probability but also the timing of their union formation and fertility. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and the Establishment History Panel (BHP), this study uses the mixture cure model to estimate both the quantum and the tempo effects.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course