Ukrainian Women and Births in Poland: What Knowledge Can We Gain from the Register of War Refugees Made Available in 2022?

Weronika Kloc-Nowak , University of Warsaw
Olena Ovchynnikova, Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw

Unprecedented numbers of war refugees from Ukraine have prompted Poland to publish PESEL UKR - a detailed register of refugees, opening new possibilities to study births to Ukrainian women in Poland. Despite their challenging livelihoods, refugees may maintain high fertility levels (Sieverding et al. 2019) and increase in births in the host country (see Syrians in Sweden - Tønnessen et al. 2021). However, Ukraine stands out among the top countries of origin of refugees due to its (lowest) low TFR (SSC 2022). Births of Ukrainian citizens had shown steady growth in Poland in the preceding years, yet in 2022 the number leapt to 12,355 (compared to 4,971 in 2021). While birth registration is reliable, little has been known regarding the size and age structure of immigrant women. Yet, since 2022 the PESEL UKR database documents the age and sex structure of the war refugees, including, at the peak in October 2022, nearly 580 thousand reproductive-age female persons. Using forecasted ASFRs, based on the 2013-2021 trend from Ukraine, and applied to this register data, we estimated potential monthly numbers of births (pregnancies conceived before 24 February 2022) among the refugee population, assuming their presence in Poland. As our monthly estimates surpassed the number of registered newborn refugees, it has proved the population of female refugees present in Poland was smaller than registered and decreasing already in mid-2022. It can be explained by either return or further mobility, as reflected in the updated version of the register from 5th October 2022.

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 Presented in Session 54. Flash session International Migration