Evaluating the East Asian Model of Low Fertility Hypothesis: Evidence from Japan

Fumiya Uchikoshi , Princeton University
Ryota Mugiyama, University of Tokyo
James Raymo, Princeton University

In this study, we propose and evaluate an alternative approach to understanding “lowest-low” fertility in East Asia, focusing on the strong link between the desire for children and getting married. Recognizing that later and less marriage is the primary reason for low total fertility rates in these societies, we hypothesize that weak or ambivalent fertility desires are negatively associated with marriage and shape the relationship between marital desires and the transition to marriage. We evaluate these hypotheses by focusing on Japan, a society where parenthood plays an integral part in the “package” of family expectations and obligations that accompany marriage. Using multivariate discrete-time logit models to analyze the transition to marriage among never-married men and women, we found that stronger fertility desires were significantly associated with earlier transition to marriage, but do not alter the positive association between marital desires and transition to marriage.

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 Presented in Session 26. Flash session Fertility Intentions