Structural Labor Market Change and Fertility in Norway

Vegard Skirbekk
Ole Røgeberg, Frisch centre
Bernt Bratsberg, Frisch centre

Our research question is whether structural economic risk is associated with fertility differentials. To answer this, we examine statistical associations between an indicator of occupational structural risk (routine task intensity which is measured for all Norwegians employed in the baseline year of 2006) and their total fertility across the 14-year follow-up period 2007-2020. Our data extract consists of 214,134 men and 190,111 women born between 1971 and 1981. From these records, we construct subsamples for the purpose of conducting sibling comparisons, identifying 109,452 men and 96,049 women with a sibling in the employee extract. These samples are further reduced in specifications using both family and firm fixed effects, resulting in observation counts of 86,494 men and 78,980 women in the most exhaustive specifications. We find that occupational structural risk at baseline covaries with long-term fertility outcomes, with similar coefficient sizes for men and women. The association is markedly attenuated in analyses adjusting for individual age and education at baseline, but no further attenuation was observed in models additionally adjusting for time-invariant differences between firms and families. More routine intense jobs tend to have a greater risk of being displaced through automation or offshoring, with a one standard deviation increase in routine intensity associated with a reduction of 0.04 (95 CI: 0.03-0.06 for men and 0.02-0.06 for women) children born within the observational window. In percentage terms relative to sample means, this is a fertility reduction for both men and women of about 4%. These results from the main analysis are consistent with a causal effect of structural economic risk on fertility.

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 Presented in Session 76. Fertility and Work Environment