The Role of Environmental and Climate Factors on Migration: The Case of Ghana from 1985 to 2014

Daniela Ghio, European Commission
Sarah Hoyos-Hoyos , Toronto Metropolitan University
Gavin Liu, Toronto Metropolitan University
Robert McLeman, Wilfrid Laurier University
Emmanuel Kyeremeh, Toronto Metropolitan University
Gabby Resch, Ontario Tech University
Ali Mazalek , Toronto Metropolitan University

A common perception exists that West-African migration is predominately driven by environmental stress, conflict, and economic factors. For instance, scholars have argued that precipitations and droughts in the Ghanian northern regions are important factors in the out-flows to the southern parts of the country. However, few empirical analyses have been directly tied large-scale migration with slow onset climatic processes. To fill these gaps, our research focuses on the temporal and spatial changes of migration and contextual factors. Net-migration estimates, temperature, precipitation, conflict, and artisanal (small-scale-company) gold-mining datasets were harmonized at high-resolution, to model environmental migration drivers in Ghana, by 5-year interval, from 1985 to 2014. We adopt a three-step approach. First, we apply the geographic-weighted-regression (GWR) to explore how factors interact as spatial system; second, we adopt the multiscale-geographic-weighted-regression (MGWR) to investigate the local incidence of each variable. Finally, we validate results using the machine learning approach (geographically-weighted-random-forest, GWRF). Results reveal the variables that play a relevant role in the interplay with migration. From 2000 to 2014, changes in net migration are associated with changes in maximum-temperatures, mean length of consecutive dry-days, and artisanal gold-mining activities; yet the models capture high spatial variability across Ghanian territories. Our contribution to the literature on environmental and climate migration is twofold. First, from a methodological perspective, we determine the complementary of the three geo-spatial methods. Second, our analysis gives empirical evidence on how environmental-climate conditions, acting in combination with other political and socio-economic factors, alter local-systems and in-turn influence migration behaviors over time.

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 Presented in Session P53. Flash session Climate Change, Individual Attitudes and Behavior