Enhanced Fertility Modelling: Integrating Social Interaction Theories into Differential Equation Models

Qi Cui , London School of Economics and Political Science

This research seeks to construct a new fertility model amplified by the integration of social interaction theories to offer a nuanced understanding of fertility behaviours. A thorough review of core diffusion mechanisms forms the foundation of the study, with the objective of comprehensively setting model parameters, each offering its unique behavioural interpretation. Our investigation hinges on two principal research inquiries: Firstly, can we feasibly intertwine social interaction theories and differential equations to accurately illustrate fertility age schedules in our model? Secondly, well can the new model empirically fit cohort age-specific fertility data when juxtaposed against other differential equation models? Our findings illustrate a noteworthy advancement in fertility modelling: the fusion of social interaction theories within a differential equation model significantly bolsters the model's accuracy and predictability. These results indicate the potential for our new differential equation model to offer profound insights into fertility analysis.

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 Presented in Session 16. Modelling Kinship and Fertility Processes