A Three-Component Model for Adult Mortality

Trifon I. Missov , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark
Silvio Patricio, Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark

We introduce a model that disaggregates adult mortality into three components: senescent, background, and behavioral. We assume the latter results from the interaction of one's inclination to act risky and the associated damage. The suggested model is quite general and can incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, as well as dependencies among the components. We study several model specifications and compare their goodness-of-fit on data from the Human Mortality Database. We also estimate the age-specific share of deaths pertaining to each component.

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 Presented in Session 74. Mortality Modelling