Do People Really Know Their Fertility Intentions? Analyzing Correspondence between Self-Reported Fertility Intentions and Narratives

Xiao Xu , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Anne H. Gauthier, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Gert Stulp, University of Groningen
Antal van den Bosch, Meertens Institute

Fertility intention data from surveys often serve as a crucial component in modeling fertility behaviors. Yet, the persistent gap between stated intentions and actual fertility decisions, coupled with the prevalence of uncertain responses, has cast doubt on the overall utility of intentions and sparked controversies about their nature. In this study, we use survey data from a representative sample of Dutch women. With the help of open-ended questions (OEQs) on fertility and Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods, we are able to conduct an in-depth analysis of fertility narratives. Specifically, we annotate the (expert) perceived fertility intentions of respondents and compare them to their self-reported intentions from the survey. Through this analysis, we aim to reveal the disparities between self-reported intentions and the narratives. Furthermore, by applying neural topic modeling methods, we could uncover which topics and characteristics are more prevalent among respondents who exhibit a significant discrepancy between their stated intentions and their probable future behavior, as reflected in their narratives.

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 Presented in Session 26. Flash session Fertility Intentions